This is my bubble tracker, I am going to cover every team I believe could either fall out of the tourney field or move into the field.
In Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology right now I see the 1-9 seeds as safe. Everyone else is in danger from some 10 seeds to the bottom of the bubble so read below to see what your team has to do to be safe.
Providence(10 seed)- Providence has really worked some magic winning vs Butler and Xavier, then overcoming huge deficits to beat Creighton and Marquette. They are currently tied with Seton Hall, and a half a game up on Marquette and Xavier in the Big East. They now beat St Johns to complete the regular season. Providence is a 3 seed in the Big East tourney, but in a tough spot because they play Creighton first, where a loss could put them right on the cut line for an invite to the big dance.
Syracuse(10 seed)- The Orange got a huge win at the buzzer vs Duke which I thought got them a spot in the tourney, but they turned around and got destroyed by Louisville raising questions. Syracuse had something to prove on Saturday, and they did where they destroyed Georgia Tech to most likely clinch a bid. In the ACC tourney, Cuse fell to Miami leaving them to wait and see if they get in sitting right on the cut line.
Marquette(11 seed)- Marquette just got a huge win at Xavier which saved their very good season. After that, Marquette ended their season with a bang taking out Creighton for a big win, but then fell to Seton Hall in Big East tourney play which leaves them right on the cut line like Cuse, to hope and pray on Selection Sunday.
Wake Forest(11 Seed)- Wake Forest has been quiet lately looking for a huge win. They came close to beating Duke, but not quite. BANG I wrote and Wake listened upsetting #8 Louisville for a huge win to boost them majorly. Shortly after that they took out Virginia Tech which boosted them up, just for them to fall to Virginia Tech in a rematch game in the ACC tourney. This leaves Wake Forest with Marquette and Cuse to just wait and see on Selection Sunday.
Vanderbilt(11 seed)- This team looked to be done and came out of no where to win 4 straight, one being to #21 South Carolina at the time. It is gonna be tough for them though, they just lost a hard fought game Wednesday where they led the majority of the game @ Kentucky, then they finished their season by upsetting Florida. They play Texas AM first in SEC Tourney where a win could seal a tourney invite.
Xavier(12 seed)- Xavier has struggled as of late, losing 5 straight all to projected tournament teams which makes it a little better, but still not good for their resume. They had a good chance to get a good win Wednesday at home vs Marquette but could not get it done which hurt them even more. Xavier finished the regular season with an easy win against Depaul. Xavier will take on Butler in the Big East Tourney in a must win game to make the big dance.
USC(12 seed)- USC dropped a terrible game to Arizona State which really hurt. Then they beat Washington and Washington State to end their regular season. USC will play UCLA in second round action of the PAC 12 tourney leaving them in a win and you are in or lose and you have to pray situation.
Rhode Island(First 4 Out)- Rhode Island fell off the bubble then came back winning 3 straight with one of those being against first place VCU. Beating VCU was huge and gave Rhode Island life. Rhode Island finished the regular season with wins over St Joes and Davidson(in OT) to get them a 3 seed in the A10 tourney which is huge because a win gives them a great chance to make the big dance. They play St Bonaventure in a tough game to start the A10 tourney. Win and they will be right on the cut line going into the semifinals.
KSU(First 4 Out)- KSU got a huge win Wednesday night knocking off TCU and likely ending TCU’s season. They then on Saturday knocked off bubble team Texas Tech to finish their season on good note. They still need a win in the Big 12 tourney to me and will have to beat Baylor for that win.
Houston(Next 4 Out)- Houston seemed ti be done with a blow out loss to Cincy. However, still have a chance if they can beat the Uconn/USF winner then take out Cincy in a revenge game.
Richmond(My Possibilities)- The Spiders have moved into 3rd place in the A10 and have been playing great. Yes, they fell to George Mason last week and could not beat first place VCU, but 11-5 in conference and 17-11 overall should be a bubble team. They will need to make a statement in the A10 tourney to be talked about in tourney talks.
Likely Out, but still a chance
Indiana- They still have a chance to some, but not to me after a loss to Purdue. They can some what prove their worth in a huge game vs Iowa in the Big Ten tourney.
Iowa- Some are saying that with 3 straight wins over Maryland, Indiana, and Thursday Nights win over Wisconsin are enough to give them a spot on the bubble, but I personally do not have them there. They can prove their worth in a huge game vs Indiana in the Big Ten tourney.
Georgia- Likely out after getting blown out by Arkansas. Still a chance though if they can find a way to get a win vs Kentucky in SEC tourney. They challenged Kentucky twice this year.
Cal- Has to beat Utah in PAC 12 tourney to be still relevant.
TCU- Upsetting Kansas in Big 12 tourney could get them back on the bubble.
At Large Bid Thieves
At large bid thieves are teams that steal at large bids, meaning a small school steals a bid from a large school by not winning their Conference Tourney, but are viewed as good enough by the selection committee. All the teams that could be candidates of this are listed below. Keep in mind these teams would have to at least make it to the championship in their respective conferences.
Wichita State- Currently Porjected as an 8 seed, they are the biggest at large bid thief of them all, and very likely do not have to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tourney to be in, either does Illinois State out of the MVC.
Illinois State- Who currently sits on the bubble could also get in by not winning the MVC. It is likely though that Illinois State or Wichita State will win and the other will be the runner up, so both will likely steal bids.
It is official Wichita State and Illinois State should both make it to the big dance for making it to the Missouri Valley Championship, making the loser an at large bid thief.
Middle Tennessee- The Blue Raiders beat Michigan State as a 15 seed last year as we all know, have been playing fantastic ever since with all 5 starters that won vs MSU last year. They are projected a 10 seed right now going into the C-USA tourney so losing in the C-USA Championship would likely still get them into the tourney making them an at large thief.
Vermont- Vermont finished the year undefeated in American East play and are a projected 13 seed right now. The Selection Committee would have a great team sitting there if they lost in the American East Championship, however the resume may not be good enough. This team could be a huge at large thief it all depends on the committee.
Princeton- With a great resume and no losses in conference and a projected 13 seed, Princeton could steal a bid if they lost to a team like Harvard in the Ivy League Championship, but it would be a stretch.
UT Arlington- Projected as a 12 seed puts this team in a great position to make a run in the super tough Sun Belt tourney, lose in the championship, and still get into the big dance.
Now for one last at large thief, I have the Mountain West Conference. Nevada is projected as a 12 seed and could easily be in the Tournament with a loss in the championship game along with Boise State who is identical with one less win in conference.