This is my bubble tracker, I am going to cover every team I believe could either fall out of the tourney field or move into the field.
In Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology right now I see the 1-9 seeds as safe. Everyone else is in danger from some 10 seeds to the bottom of the bubble so read below to see what your team has to do to be safe.
Michigan State(10 seed)- MSU just got a win vs Wisconsin which almost made them safe, but not quite. On Wednesday Night they dropped a fairly bad loss to Illinois on Wednesday. Now, Michigan State is in more trouble with a loss to Maryland on Saturday. They may be out with a loss in the first game they play in the Big Ten tourney which will be the winner of Penn State vs Nebraska.
Providence(10 seed)- Providence has really worked some magic winning vs Butler and Xavier, then overcoming huge deficits to beat Creighton and Marquette. They are currently tied with Seton Hall, and a half a game up on Marquette and Xavier in the Big East. They now beat St Johns to complete the regular season. Providence is a 3 seed in the Big East tourney, but in a tough spot because they play Creighton first, where a loss could put them right on the cut line for an invite to the big dance.
Syracuse(10 seed)- The Orange got a huge win at the buzzer vs Duke which I thought got them a spot in the tourney, but they turned around and got destroyed by Louisville raising questions. Syracuse had something to prove on Saturday, and they did where they destroyed Georgia Tech to most likely clinch a bid. They play Miami first in the ACC Tourney so win or loss I see them as in.
Seton Hall(10 seed)- Seton Hall is in the same boat as teams like Xavier and Marquette, yesterday they knocked off Georgetown barely. They have a good chance to make a statement when they go to Butler to end the year. STATEMENT made, Seton Hall has upset Butler to end their season with a bang, and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament unless they lose bad in the first round of the Big East Tourney vs Marquette. Even with a loss I see them as in still, but it would be close.
Marquette(11 seed)- Marquette just got a huge win at Xavier which saved their very good season. After that, Marquette ended their season with a bang of their own taking out Creighton for a big win which COULD punch their ticket to the NCAA Tourney, but they may need to beat Seton Hall.
Wake Forest(11 Seed)- Wake Forest has been quiet lately looking for a huge win. They came close to beating Duke, but not quite. BANG I wrote and Wake listened Wednesday night they upset #8 Lousiville for a huge win to boost them majorly. Shortly after that they took out Virginia Tech which boosted them up even more, but I think they still need one win in the ACC tourney. They play BCU first then the winner gets Virginia Tech.
Vanderbilt(11 seed)- This team looked to be done and came out of no where to win 4 straight, one being to #21 South Carolina at the time. It is gonna be tough for them though, they just lost a hard fought game Wednesday where they led the majority of the game @ Kentucky, then they finished their season by upsetting Florida. They play Texas AM first in SEC Tourney where a win could seal a tourney invite.
Xavier(12 seed)- Xavier has struggled as of late, losing 5 straight all to projected tournament teams which makes it a little better, but still not good for their resume. They had a good chance to get a good win Wednesday at home vs Marquette but could not get it done which hurt them even more. Xavier finished the regular season with an easy win against Depaul. Xavier still has work to do in the Big East tourney where they will play Depaul again to start. Win that and they will take on Butler which is a game that they might have to win to make the big dance.
USC(12 seed)- USC dropped a terrible game to Arizona State which really hurt. Then they beat Washington and Washington State to end their regular season. They need a win in the PAC 12 tourney to have a chance to go to the NCAA Tournament where they take on Washington.
Rhode Island(First 4 Out)- Rhode Island fell off the bubble then came back winning 3 straight with one of those being against first place VCU. Beating VCU was huge and gave Rhode Island life. Rhode Island finished the regular season with wins over St Joes and Davidson(in OT) to get them a 3 seed in the A10 tourney which is huge because a win gives them a great chance to make the big dance.
KSU(First 4 Out)- KSU got a huge win Wednesday night knocking off TCU and likely ending TCU’s season. They then on Saturday knocked off bubble team Texas Tech to finish their season on good note. They still need a win in the Big 12 tourney to me.
Georgia Tech(Next 4 Out)- Georgia Tech has one last chance to prove that they deserve a spot. They go to Syracuse on Saturday where a win is crucial. A win at Cuse would have put them in for now, but the got destroyed likely ending their hopes. They will need 2 wins in the ACC tourney for a chance to me.
Clemson(Next 4 Out)- This team has been so close to huge wins, but cannot find a way to get it done. They beat BCU to finish their regular season. They need 2, maybe 3 wins in ACC tourney to make it to the NCAA Tournament.
Richmond(My Possibilities)- The Spiders have moved into 3rd place in the A10 and have been playing great. Yes, they fell to George Mason last week and could not beat first place VCU, but 11-5 in conference and 17-11 overall should be a bubble team. They will need to make a statement in the A10 tourney to be talked about in tourney talks.
Likely Out, but still a chance
Houston- Likely for sure out now with a loss by 18 to Cincy. Even with a run to the semi finals in the AAC tourney will probably not be enough to get them in the big dance.
Indiana- They still have a chance to some, but not to me after a loss to Purdue. If the beat Ohio State and make it to Semis in the Big Ten then maybe, but that may not be enough.
Iowa- Some are saying that with 3 straight wins over Maryland, Indiana, and Thursday Nights win over Wisconsin are enough to give them a spot on the bubble, but I personally do not have them there.
Illinois- Likely out since they fell to Rutgers on Saturday. making it to the Big Ten Semis is their only chance.
Georgia- Likely out after getting blown out by Arkansas. Still a chance though.
Texas Tech- Likely out with a loss to Kansas State.
Cal- Likely after ending their regular season horribly.
At Large Bid Thieves
At large bid thieves are teams that steal at large bids, meaning a small school steals a bid from a large school by not winning their Conference Tourney, but are viewed as good enough by the selection committee. All the teams that could be candidates of this are listed below. Keep in mind these teams would have to at least make it to the championship in their respective conferences.
Wichita State- Currently Projected as an 8 seed, they are the biggest at large bid thief of them all, and very likely do not have to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tourney to be in, either does Illinois State out of the MVC.
Illinois State- Who currently sits on the bubble could also get in by not winning the MVC. It is likely though that Illinois State or Wichita State will win and the other will be the runner up, so both will likely steal bids.
It is official Wichita State and Illinois State should both make it to the big dance for making it to the Missouri Valley Championship, making the loser an at large bid thief.
Middle Tennessee- The Blue Raiders beat Michigan State as a 15 seed last year as we all know, have been playing fantastic ever since with all 5 starters that won vs MSU last year. They are projected a 10 seed right now going into the C-USA tourney so losing in the C-USA Championship would likely still get them into the tourney making them an at large thief.
UNC Willmington- Projected as a 12 seed right now leaves them right on the inside of the bubble. This team has been struggling though and are identical to Monmouth last year losing in conference tourney play and getting snubbed. UNCW has to win it all or lose in the championship and pray just like Monmouth did last year. Getting in would take away another at large bid if they were to lose in that championship game.
Vermont- Vermont finished the year undefeated in American East play and are a projected 13 seed right now. The Selection Committee would have a great team sitting there if they lost in the American East Championship, however the resume may not be good enough. This team could be a huge at large thief it all depends on the committee.
Princeton- With a great resume and no losses in conference and a projected 13 seed, Princeton could steal a bid if they lost to a team like Harvard in the Ivy League Championship, but it would be a stretch.
Now for one last at large thief, I have the Mountain West Conference. Nevada is projected as a 12 seed and could easily be in the Tournament with a loss in the championship game along with Boise State who is identical with one less win in conference.