This is my bubble tracker, I am going to cover every team I believe could either fall out of the tourney field or move into the field.
In Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology right now I see the 1-9 seeds as safe. Everyone else is in danger from some 10 seeds to the bottom of the bubble so read below to see what your team has to do to be safe.
According to Joe Lunardi
- Last 4 Byes(basically safe): Providence, Marquette, Seton Hall, and Xavier.
- Last 4 In- Wake Forest/Kansas State and Syracuse/Rhode Island.
- Out for now: USC and Illinois State.
Providence(10 seed)- Providence has really worked some magic winning vs Butler and Xavier, then overcoming huge deficits to beat Creighton and Marquette. They are currently tied with Seton Hall, and a half a game up on Marquette and Xavier in the Big East. They now beat St Johns to complete the regular season. Providence fell to Creighton in the Big East tourney putting them right on the cut line to make the big dance. However, Joe Lunardi has the Friars at a 10 seed meaning he thinks they are pretty safe.
Marquette(10 seed)- Marquette just got a huge win at Xavier which saved their very good season. After that, Marquette ended their season with a bang taking out Creighton for a big win, but then fell to Seton Hall. Just like Providence, Marquette is sitting at a 10 seed, pretty safe, but not quite a lock.
Xavier(11 seed)- Xavier closed the season with a win vs Depaul. In the Big East tourney the Musketeers beat Depaul again and the upset Butler to regain strength. They eventually ended up losing to Creighton on a crazy final sequence. Sit and wait now for Xavier.
Syracuse(11 seed)- The Orange got a huge win at the buzzer vs Duke which I thought got them a spot in the tourney, but they turned around and got destroyed by Louisville raising questions. Syracuse had something to prove, and they did by destroying Georgia Tech. In the ACC tourney, Cuse fell to Miami leaving them to wait and see if they get in, sitting right on the cut line.
KSU(11 seed)- KSU got a huge win Wednesday night knocking off TCU and likely ending TCU’s season. They then on Saturday knocked off bubble team Texas Tech to finish their season on good note. In the Big 12 tourney, Kansas State upset Baylor for a boost right onto the cut line of the NCAA Tournament for them to fall to West Virginia and be forced to wait.
Wake Forest(12 Seed)- Wake Forest has been quiet lately looking for a huge win. They came close to beating Duke, but not quite. BANG I wrote and Wake listened upsetting #8 Louisville for a huge win to boost them majorly. Shortly after that they took out Virginia Tech which boosted them up, just for them to fall to Virginia Tech in a rematch game in the ACC tourney. This leaves Wake also to just wait and see on Selection Sunday.
Rhode Island(12 seed)- Rhode Island fell off the bubble then came back winning 3 straight with one of those being against first place VCU. Beating VCU was huge and gave Rhode Island life. Rhode Island finished the regular season with wins over St Joes and Davidson(in OT) to get them a 3 seed in the A10 tourney which is huge because a win gives them a great chance to make the big dance. In the A10 tourney URI is in the Semi Finals after knocking off St Bonaventure.
USC(Last Out)- USC dropped a terrible game to Arizona State which really hurt. Then they beat Washington and Washington State to end their regular season. USC fell to UCLA by just 2 leaving them to wait and see their fate for the NCAA Tournament.
Illinois State(Last Out)- Info below, they just have to wait for Selection Sunday.
At Large Bid Thieves
At large bid thieves are teams that steal at large bids, meaning a small school steals a bid from a large school by not winning their Conference Tourney, but are viewed as good enough by the selection committee. All the teams that could be candidates of this are listed below. Keep in mind these teams would have to at least make it to the championship in their respective conferences.
Wichita State- Currently Projected as an 8 seed, they are the biggest at large bid thief of them all, and very likely do not have to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tourney to be in, either does Illinois State out of the MVC.
Illinois State- Who currently sits on the bubble could also get in by not winning the MVC. It is likely though that Illinois State or Wichita State will win and the other will be the runner up, so both will likely steal bids. Illinois State has to sit and wait now and hope bubble teams plummet.
Middle Tennessee- The Blue Raiders beat Michigan State as a 15 seed last year as we all know, have been playing fantastic ever since with all 5 starters that won vs MSU last year. They are projected a 10 seed right now going into the C-USA tourney so losing in the C-USA Championship would likely still get them into the tourney making them an at large thief.
Princeton- With a great resume and no losses in conference and a projected 13 seed, Princeton could steal a bid if they lost to a team like Harvard in the Ivy League Championship, but it would be a stretch.
Nevada- With a loss to Colorado State Nevada is easily going to be consider for a bid making them a thief as well.